Genesis Open odds, picks 2018: Projected Tiger Woods finish from proven computer model

The PGA Tour is heading to Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California, this week for the 2018 Genesis Open. Dustin Johnson is the Vegas favorite at 5/1, followed by Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy at 12/1.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel, you’ll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over Jon Rahm’s victory at the CareerBuilder Challenge this season and had two players in its projected top five finish tied for second at last week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Now that the field for the Genesis Open 2018 is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

Tiger Woods (33/1), the 14-time major champion, will make his second start of the season this week. The 2018 Genesis Open will be Woods’ first tournament at Riviera Country Club since 2006. Woods has never won a PGA Tour event at the historic California venue and SportsLine says he will struggle mightily again. SportsLine is projecting him to finish outside the top 50.

One huge surprise the model is calling for: Charley Hoffman, a 100/1 longshot, makes a serious run at the title. He’s a target for anybody looking for a huge payday.

Hoffman withdrew during the third round of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, only his second mid-tourney withdrawal in 342 career events. However, he has played well this season with a pair of top-10 finishes at the Hero World Challenge and QBE Shootout — both unofficial PGA Tour events.

Another curveball: Bubba Watson, a two-time winner of the Genesis Open, doesn’t even sniff the top 40. He’s somebody to steer clear of this week.

Watson has not finished better than 35th in an official PGA Tour event this season. His 54.34 driving accuracy percentage ranks just 181st on the PGA Tour.

Also, three additional players with odds longer than 30/1 are positioning themselves to make a serious run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 Genesis Open this year? And what long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that predicted Jon Rahm’s victory at the CareerBuilder Challenge, and find out.

Dustin Johnson 5/1
Jordan Spieth 12/1
Rory McIlroy 12/1
Justin Thomas 18/1
Paul Casey 22/1
Phil Mickelson 22/1
Tommy Fleetwood 28/1
Marc Leishman 33/1
Tiger Wood 33/1
Chez Reavie 33/1
Daniel Berger 40/1
Ollie Schniederjans 40/1
Alex Noren 45/1
Branden Grace 45/1
Brendan Stelle 45/1
Bubba Watson 45/1
Kevin Chappell 45/1
Matt Kuchar 45/1
Thomas Pieters 45/1
Pat Perez 50/1

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